Globalization matters

McKinsey a récemment lancé un nouveau site internet :  What Matters .

La globalization y figure en bonne place, parmi une série d’autres thèmes de réflexion, comme les biotechnologies, le changement climatique, l’énergie, la santé, Internet, l’innovation, la géopolitique.

« In each case, lit-on dans le texte de présentation, we asked our essayists to take a long view and tackle tomorrow’s trends rather than today’s headlines ».

Ci-dessous, les premiers paragraphes d’un article intitulé Globalization: slowed but not stopped, mis en ligne le 25 Mars 2009 par Tyler Cowen. Il insiste sur le fait que la globalization est un peu un jeu de vases communicants et qu'il faudrait que plusieurs de ses éléments constitutifs disparaissent en même temps pour qu'elle-même s'éteigne.

"Plenty of Cassandras are warning that the days of globalization are over or have slowed down. And indeed there are some troubling signs. From 1998 to 2007 the dollar value of international trade rose by 150 percent but now it is shrinking rapidly and perhaps the clock is turning back to the 1990s.

Still, unless the world sees a major war or pandemic, this is more likely a bump in the road than an end to globalization. Yes there will be temporary slowdowns but there also will be periods of catch-up and acceleration as well. Most of the major processes favoring globalization are already in place.

Globalization consists of trade, investment, and migration, plus the notion of general influence through norms and other informal channels. One of the most important (yet neglected) insights of economics is that trade, investment, and migration can all, under various conditions, substitute for each other. So if trade is cut off, investment can flow or labor can move from one country to another. If Toyota cannot ship more cars to the American market, the company will open up a plant in Kentucky. Or if Mexicans are not allowed to cross the border, more American capital and goods will flow to Mexico; American businesses in any case wish to hire Mexicans and also to sell to them. Globalization will stop only if trade, investment, and migration across borders all are halted and that would take a truly major negative event, far worse than the ongoing financial crisis."